I copy a message posted on a telegram group , so we can discuss the issue here . These are points of view to be thought about, it is not a discussion that brings results for tomorrow but for the next 15 months.



I am very intrigued by the exports and consequently the imports of coffee between October and December 2020, as 31.60 million bags were imported, which was 6.1% more than the quantity for the same period in the previous year. What is the reason for such a large import? If consumption was weak, wouldn't it be more prudent to import only consumption and leave the coffee at origin? My intuition is that consumption has increased with consumers, i.e. if consumers are at home, they have drunk coffee at home. We must remember that consuming coffee is chemically addictive, but it's not a habit that can be abandoned easily, and it's also very pleasant. I also don't believe that this increase in imports of 6.1%, equivalent to 1.80 million bags, was totally for the increase in consumption, part of this increase was for consumption and another part for the formation of stocks. The major exporter during this period was Brazil which exported 3.5 million bags more while other producing countries reduced their exports by 1.67 million bags, i.e. 8.42% less than the previous year. The question then becomes, what is the reality of other producing countries in coffee production for 2021? I ask you what the reality is for Brazil for the 2021 harvest, and in my opinion it will decrease by 25 million bags of coffee. The large multinational coffee exporters in Brazil are sending coffee to their headquarters to be stocked because they are noticing a decrease in exports from other origins such as Central America and Vietnam, as they see an increase in Brazilian certificates, and these coffees will not be delivered to ICE. So, pay attention to exports from all countries, as this is what will effectively make the difference in the coming months.