Thank you, Coffee Broker.
Indeed there was too much coffee in Brazil last year.
Subsequently ICE became a "buyer of last resort"; giving a differential "bid" for coffee that might have otherwise been offered into a vacuum.
This coffee is now in the "wrong place" and it is hedged.
Anybody can buy futures and wait for the delivery month and thus receive some coffee somewhere (could be Brazil in Antwerp or Mexico in Houston, the buyer has no choice as the short decides), but it is unlikely that the holders can hang out for huge margins over the delivery value - the market is too efficient for that.
Many of the bullish arguments that some members in this forum keep pushing, could be explained by you final point: that Honduras (the ICE "staple" for the last 5-8 years) is trading at 25 cts premium.
Were it not for Brazil SemiWashed, ICE stocks would have dwindled below 1 million bags and "force" the market to go find some fresh material in Honduras.