The crop is what it is. Severely compromised and 2022/23 won’t make a full recovery. Brazilian diffs are starting to tighten. The market is acting the same way it did in 2010 when Colombia faced back to back short crops and the market first responded differentially, which is really the way it should be for a true fundamentally driven market. Cash leads futures higher. Suddenly a default or two or three as the price advances. Then what?
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