The 2014 comparison I think is very interesting. Similarities are drought inflicted damage, but that's about where it ends. Back then the market ran prices up dramatically and was unaware of the scale of stocks brazil had, and this was reflected in the gradual increase in crop estimates for prior crop years from the likes of usda/volcafe/ecom. This year price increases have been much more gradual until maybe this week and the market has been keenly aware of the narratives huge production from last year and weak demand. Macro wise the BRL was much stronger in 2014 but the environment was sharply deflationary. Today we have has overall mixed signals from the BRL but an otherwise inflationary macro.