Brazil's coffee harvest is expected to fall by 17.8% this year, with last year's severe drought deepening losses that would naturally occur in 2021, the low period of the biannual arabic cycle, consultancy Safras estimated on Wednesday & Marketplace.
According to consultant Gil Barabach, the Brazilian harvest this year is estimated at 57.1 million bags of 60 kg, versus a record of 69.5 million in 2020.
Brazilian coffee production will not be even smaller in 2021 because the harvest of conilon is expected to be large, estimated at 21.9 million bags, while that of Arabica was seen at 35.2 million bags.
Conilon crops, the analyst said, are in better condition, and the harvest is expected to grow, while the Arabica harvest is expected to fall 30% compared to 2020.
In addition to drought, above average temperatures during grain formation and irregular rains after flowering collaborate to bring down the production of arabica in 2021.
With the decline in the harvest, Brazilian production should be insufficient to meet demand, noted the analyst.
But Brazil has larger opening stocks in 2021/22, of almost 5 million bags, versus 1.7 million bags at the beginning of the previous season.
According to the specialist, these inventories alleviate a little the “scenario of price improvement”, which is still bullish.
Coffee sales for the 2021 harvest, which is expected to start harvesting between April and May, reached 21% of the productive potential, and are just not more advanced "due to the risk of not having coffee to deliver", due to the crop failure , said the analyst.
The figures consider sales until February 9. Until December, commercialization had reached 19% of the productive potential.
Considering the most recent percentage, the country has already sold around 12 million bags.
Minas Gerais has already sold 33% of its expected harvest, while São Paulo sold 41% of future production in advance, according to Safras data.
With a scenario of firm prices, Brazil has already sold between 12% and 15% of the 2022 harvest, added the analyst.
With regard to last year's production, sales in Brazil reached 83% of the harvest (up to February 9), above the historical average of 80% for the period.
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