Brazil’s ‘21 Coffee Crop to Fall 25% on Drought Woes: Wolthers
By Marvin G. Perez
(Bloomberg) --

World’s top supplier may reap 50.8m bags of coffee in 2021-22, down from 68m a year earlier, after drought cut yields for arabica plants, says Christian Wolthers, president of Florida importer Wolthers Douque.
Arabica crop may drop 35% to 31.8m bags while robusta output will be little changed at 19m bags, Wolthers says in phone interview

Brazil was already set to pick less arabica beans due to biennial nature of crop, with cycles that alternate between higher yield and lower yield

Trees were so stressed from a lack of moisture that producers decided to prune 15% to 20% of the crop instead of the typical 10% level, which further eroded yield

The 2022-23 crop will be “very good” barring any adverse developments, with probably 68m to 70m bags because all that pruning will come back online

Producers, helped by a weak real, “are doing very well in terms of management, sustainability and economically, and they are investing more on their farms”

The world needs more coffee as demand rebounds due to consumers drinking more than ever at home, which compensates for slower sales at restaurants, hotels and offices, says Wolthers, who has traded the commodity for more than 30 years

NOTE: Wolthers has offices in Central America as well as Colombia and Brazil, including in top arabica producing state Minas Gerais

NOTE: Wolthers view of harvest starting next month is at the lower end of recent estimates that include brokers Marex Spectron and StoneX Group, as well as traders Volcafe and Ecom Trading