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Posted by Q
on March 24, 2021, 9:46 pm, in reply to "Re: Thoughts?
Thanks Tango. Also worth mentioning than n2-u2 is basically at its highs. No liquidity out there but spreads seem to be saying the upcoming deficit is real but delayed. I think the container story is a drop in the ocean compared to the demand story but either way it's worth wondering what is the job of flat price today vs 6 months from now vs 1 year from now. Normally I'd say flat price should discount right away but this is no normal year. My bias has been and remains that the market will make a very big move to the upside ahead of demand improving but confidence in demand needs to be high (and roasters need to be part of this as funds can't buy enough contracts to get in front of the scale of what's coming). In the meantime whether price is at 120 or 140 doesn't really matter. We're in a random walk and well balanced for the intersection of poor supply and poor demand.