Your observation is correct and obvious.
I noticed that also some local European currencies react on Covid cases same as coffee price you posted. I see it as very logical.
My hope is that warm spring is coming to Europe and sunshine will probably help with fighting the virus to some degree.
However, most countries do not plan to lift up restrictions anytime soon, partly because more people and also younger people are in need of hospitalization, more than at time of similar number of cases last year.
IMO, the first half of 2021 in terms of coffee consumption pattern will be dominantly at-home consumption.
Second part of the year is still open question, because people seem to show strong tendency to catch up the lost year and enjoy life as much and as soon as it will be possible.
However, I would not rule out scenario that in 2021 a slightly lower global supply will roughly match with slightly lower global demand, and the price pressure would be in average neutralized, maybe with only few temporary short-lived rallies.
I further lowered probability of a strong KC rally in 2021.
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