I think you can find fundamental explanations to the seasonnality of coffee prices too.
Importing countries stocks (GCA for instance) increase March onwards with seasonnality as central america crops start to reach US warehouses. We also get closer to the new Brazil crop, and forward selling might intensify from Brazilian farmers.
Into year end, consumer stocks tend to drop, while demand picks up (roasting season for the holidays), which is overall supportive for prices.
But as you said, each year is different.
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