For some time already, I am betting on the virus against people.
Unfortunately, I have been more right than wrong and that shaped my rather pessimistic views of overall situation not only on the coffee market for near future.
For the most part I focused, self-centeredly, on the consumption side, but there is also the supply or better say production side of the equation.
For a very long time, the wealthier part of the world enjoyed the fruits of producing labor of the poorer part, and that has been taken as granted.
The only disturbance was basically the weather or war of some sort.
I briefly though last year what will happen if the so called 3rd world countries get hit hard by the virus.
I was surprised it did not quite happen yet (except for maybe Brazil to certain degree last year), and dismissed that risk a little bit.
But now, I am afraid it was just delayed manifestation of the virus's ability to spread quickly and quite "silently".
The producing countries do not have much of the luxury to keep three D. and when contagion crosses certain threshold it seems to be unstoppable. It depends on the life style and migration patterns within the population, but it can be described as "nothing seems happening until certain moment and then epidemic takes off".
I am afraid that countries that are in position of our essential workers have their epidemic about to take off soon.
And I wonder what impact the virus will have on the global supply chain, if for example as a result there is not enough available workers there.
We in northern hemisphere might be soon perfectly safe, feeling like the pandemic is behind us, but I think the elephant is still in the room, it is called novel-corona virus, and it just sat somewhere else for now.