Herszkowicz also says that with high costs, most industries - micro and small companies - are unable to pay the prices and many are shutting down or closing their doors. "That is why we fear there will be a shortage of coffee this year here in Brazil, which is extremely strange after a year in which we had record production, record sales of coffee abroad and in the domestic market, but this year everything indicates that by August/September there will be a great possibility of a shortage of coffee on the table," he comments.
For at least five years Brazil no longer has governmental stocks and the sector's concern is not only with the internal supply, but also with the producer's exports, which have been growing at a good pace and mainly showing that Brazil is gaining more and more space, such as the increase in the number of certified coffees on the ICE.
In fact, the concern is with the internal consumption and with exports as well. What happens is that we had an exceptional year last year, contrary to what 2021 has been. We had a record production, we had a very large exportation that was also based on the remaining stocks of some exporting industries, but which no longer exist today, and we had a high internal consumption", he adds. He also affirms that private stocks in 2021 are also already lower when compared to previous years. We roasters have a problem, the cost of the bag of coffee is today higher than the cost of the package of industrialized coffee, which is absurd. Today a bag of coffee that costs R$800.00 is more expensive than the same bag of industrialized coffee that is sold. It is an unimaginable situation, which is why companies cannot stand it. We have to find a solution or there will not be enough coffee on the Brazilian table," says the vice-president.
This week the 2nd Conab survey announced that the 21st harvest in Brazil will not exceed 49 million bags, a number that according to Nathan already reflects the lack of coffee. According to the vice-president, the sum of the figures between domestic consumption and export is much higher than what is expected in production.
"That is, there will be a shortage in the Brazilian market, between export and consumption, of more than 10-12 million bags. This is the shortfall that will end up restricting the supply of coffee in the market, as well as increasing the price of the raw material, which is what is already happening and has not yet happened in an intense way in the retail price of coffee for the consumer," he adds.
He also warns that besides this harvest, harvest 22 is already damaged, reflecting the impacts of the irregular weather. "Science explains that next year we will have problems, but there are also problems, according to the agronomists, that we will also have a problem in 23," he says.