Brasília, 05/27/2021 - The government will issue a water emergency alert for the period from June to September in five Brazilian states - Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Paraná. All are in the Paraná River basin, where part of agricultural production and large hydroelectric plants are concentrated. In the region, the situation is classified as "severe" and the forecast is that there will be little rainfall for the period.
It is the first warning of this nature in 111 years of meteorological services in the country. The measure corroborates the statements by President Jair Bolsonaro and the Minister of Mines and Energy, Bento Albuquerque, that Brazil is facing the biggest water crisis in recent times.
The alert, obtained by the Broadcast, will be released jointly, tomorrow, (28) by the National Meteorological System (SNM), federal agencies linked to meteorology, the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) and the National Monitoring Center and Natural Disaster Alert (Cemaden). In the document, the institutions reinforce that the water emergency is associated with the scarcity of precipitation in the hydrographic region and the forecast that the scenario will persist until September.
"Studies carried out by the SNM of meteorological monitoring for the Brazilian electric sector warn that the climatic perspectives for 2021/2022 indicate that most of the central region of the country, from May to the end of September, enters its period with a lower volume of The climatic forecast elaborated indicates for the period June-July-August 2021 the same trend, that is, low volume of rain in most of the Paraná River basin. This forecast is consistent with that of other international centers of climatic forecast " , they inform.
According to the SNM, the rainfall deficit in the Paraná basin is probably related to the influence of two large-scale atmospheric phenomena. The first is La Niña, from October 2020 to March 2021. The phenomenon brings cooling of the waters of the Pacific Ocean, decreases the temperature of the sea surface, alters the pattern of global circulation and, among the characteristics of the period, reduced rainfall in the Southern Brazil. The second is the Antarctic Oscillation (OA), responsible for changing the pattern of atmospheric pressure in the region. Since October 2020, OA has acted to prevent rain-causing systems from moving over the continental regions of South America.
The situation of water scarcity, however, is earlier. According to a survey carried out by the agencies based on the analysis of rainfall between October 2019 and April 2021 in the Paraná basin, only in December 2019, August 2020 and January 2021 the rainfall was above average. "During most of the period there was a predominance of rainfall deficit, mainly from February 2021. This characteristic is maintained in the current month, with a partial accumulation of 27 millimeters for the basin, that is, below the climatological accumulation that is of 98 millimeters. "
The SNM warns that the precipitation index in most of the hydrographic basin is moderate to extreme, considering the last 6 and 12 months, as well as in an analysis of a longer period, of the last 48 months. In other words, the current situation of rainfall deficit is severe, he warns.
The precipitation forecast indicates a maximum accumulated in 15 days of 60 mm only in the central region of Paraná, caused by small-scale meteorological systems. In the other four states of the basin, the forecast indicates a low volume of precipitation for the next few days. For the quarter between June and August, the forecast indicates rainfall below the normal range over the center-south of the State of Paraná and low rainfall throughout the basin.
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