Mexico, Salvador, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Kenya, Papua New Guinea, Panama, Tanzania, Uganda, Honduras, and Peru all at par, Colombia at 400 point premium, Burundi, Rwanda, Venezuela and India at 100 point discount, Dominican Republic and Ecuador at 400 point discount, and Brazil at 600 point discount.
As shown, there are several African origins that are registered on ICE and several others that are not. These are all the countries in Africa that produce coffee:
Democratic Republic of Congo
The warehouse stocks have been receiving plenty of Brazil coffee for some time as a result of the close to 70m bags produced by Brazil in 2020/21. Obviously, this coffee is either committed to later dates or is unsold. Some say that its purpose is for financing, meaning that the certificates are used as collateral for loans. However, this is never the ultimate purpose. Anyone would rather have the coffee sold.
The impact of warehouse stock situation should not impact the market in a negative way, necessarily. It affects the spread market on futures more so. Whatever supply of coffee exists may be offset by the shortage that may emerge as a result of whatever damage the crop has experienced. For now, front futures spreads are on the defensive and become tighter as we go forward but mostly due to forward selling by origin as far out as 23 as a result of the low Real, the Selic and the premiums that exist in the ICE spread market. Of course, this is my view of the situation. Good trading.