21/22 has gotten worse over time and sub 30 million arabica is very possible.
Please remember the USDA has stated they did NO FIELD WORK in arriving at their 35 million bag 21/22 est. due to Covid. So for this year, forget about the USDA.
Lack of vegetative growth has ensured 22/23 will come in under 20/21.
Moreover, forward sales are at record levels 1,2 and even 3 years forward.
The situation is a powder keg.
Brazil simply will have to sharply reduce exports and thus the spot coffees( all short hedged) in consuming countries- notably the certifieds--will need to be utilized.
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