Yes, this is the question I ponder every day. I have noted in the grain markets (soybeans and corn) that fundamental shortages of supply versus demand do not appear to raise prices until they are definitively confirmed, usually with export numbers reported versus USDA yearly export estimates. That is, prices have moved in response to confirmed data only. There does not not seem to be too much speculation involved. Perhaps this lack of speculation is just a flaw in my opinion of how markets *ought* to perform...? As usual, I am often my own worst enemy in my trading. But, correct price prediction is the basis of making $$, which along with the satisfaction of having been right in my analysis, is my goal.