In my opinion, to make an analysis of crop prospects, we must start a year earlier, analyzing the weather conditions and everything that can influence, including the conditions and history of the coffee park. The Brazilian arabica harvest of 2020 was excellent, if we analyze the rainfall indices of the year 2019, these were magnificent, raining a lot and excellently distributed during the phenological phase of the plants. In an example, we have in the period March to June 2019, an average accumulated rainfall in Sul de Minas of 406.50 mm, and in the year 2020 the average was 192.30 mm and in the year 2021 the average was 189.70 mm. .
This was repeated in all the important Brazilian coffee regions.
God and Mother Nature gave us plants, which transform H2O (water) and other nutrients found in the soil into various foods, with different flavors. Even after the flowering of coffee, in the period from September to November 2020, there was severe drought coupled with a strong wave of extreme heat that is very harmful to the coffee plant.
The memory of people and analysts with their asses on the couch in the Covid era is rather faulty or selective. Incredible that a Rabobank divulge that the arabica crop of 2021 , will be 36 million bags, only the biennial would approach these numbers, and the effects of drought, where are they?
Judy Ganes is on her third visit to Brazil, the first time in December 2020, she found little fruit on the trees, the second time in February 2021 she also found little fruit on the trees with little vegetative growth, and finally now she finds little fruit on the trees, little vegetative growth and little fruit on the terraces, dryers, and little coffee in the warehouses.
There are no magic tricks or miracles, the 2021 harvest, which has already been harvested close to 50%, will be ridiculously small. In my city, Espírito Santo do Pinhal - SP , which I know very well, the 2021 harvest will not reach 30% of what was harvested in 2020. A respected and traditional producer in Guaranesia, near Guaxupé, which has already finished the 2021 harvest, calculated 30.7% of the amount harvested in 2020.
The year 2020 was marked by heavy rainfall deviation in the period from March to November 2020 , mainly in the Arabica coffee producing regions, and in March 2021 drought returned.
Also in the flowering period was a period of extreme temperatures in all coffee regions, with record high temperatures in October and November 2020.
These two anomalies together, water deficit and excessive heat are hostile to coffee production, especially in the flowering season.
It is necessary for us to know what happened with droughts in such a prolonged period and in the flowering season of coffee. So I turn to Marcellino Martins' book "150 years of coffee".
The years 1963 and 1985 were characterized by strong drought in the coffee regions, so let's see, according to the book, how the subsequent year's production was.
So we have a harvest decrease in 1964 of 64.22% and in 1986 of 58.61% . And we have an aggravating factor, in those years a hectare of coffee had fewer plants, and the coffee plants were less demanded.
So don't expect miracles, because God has more important things to do.