Regarding robusta and the facts that spreads are usually influenced by 1 big player: this is usually true but I think this is different this time. If it was a squeeze the front spread would have inverted much faster and would already be trading at much higher levels. Furthermore the whole curve is backwarded and not just the front month.
I think it represents the tightness in the market following very low shipments over the last 5 months from Asia and the fact that Conilons, which represent nearly 100pct of the robusta certs, are trading at firmly positive diffs from origin (+7 cts last week). This means the cheapest robustas are the existing certs.
Also, as you can see in the COT, the commercial long in Robusta is very low. This means roasters have let their paper cover down and now absolutely need to buy (they are caught short).
With the market fully backwarded, trade will not buy any long and will only cover short, meaning only limited origin selling will weight on the market. Funds also now have an incentive to stay long (positive carry when they roll).
I think the robusta market looks bullish.