The USDA forecast global 21/22 production dropping by 11m bags to 164.8m. This would be the lowest figure since 17/18.
It is also estimated that Vietnam coffee production will decrease from 1.74 mil MT in 20/21 to 1.62 mil MT in 21/22.
A shortage of shipping containers in Asia has limited Vietnamís Robusta exports. Vietnamís General Statistics Office reported that Vietnamís June coffee exports fell -13.8% year-over-year to 110,000 MT and cumulative Jan-Jun coffee exports fell -12.3% year-over-year to 825,000 MT
Shipments from Vietnam are reported at just 97,768 MT in June which would be 2,831 MT less than in May and 21,471 MT less than in June 2020.
The current total inventory is about 613,827 MT less than 43,186 MT compared to the same period of time last year which accounts for 38% of total crop.
It was a dry month in Vietnamís central highlands with the exception of a day of very wet weather on 22nd June where the southern regions saw more than 50 mm. The average rainfall total cross the Central Highlands in June 2021 is just 174mm lower 36% than June 2020.
Vietnam coffee production in crop 20/21 dropped by 17%. One of the reasons was the low rainfall in the first six months of 2020. With the rainfall recorded in the first six months of 2021 which is lower than previous year, the production in crop 21/22 is expected to decrease even more.
Price and differential
Vietnam farmgate average price in June 2021 are reported VND 36,100/kg. The average FOB differentials are reported slightly weaker, fluctuating between $25 and $35 per tons under for Robusta grade 2 in bulk.
Robusta coffee price is seeing continued support from concern about reduced robusta coffee supplies from Vietnam, the worldís largest robusta producer. A continued shortage of shipping containers in Asia has limited Vietnamís robusta exports.
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