This frost in Brazil is very recent thing and of course it is game changing event.
But nobody can predict something like that occur and to what extent it does.
If the price goes further up now, because of this event, it is something completely different from saying that someone predicted in past that the price will go up.
Month ago it was just guessing based on whole different set of reasons and perhaps related to personal agenda (or wishes).
But now, if the frost is substantial, it is a new situation that requires a new analysis of demand and supply.
Being right in past about supply fundament is mostly luck, and congratulations about that, but it is not particularly relatable for predicting future development.
At this moment, when fundament is changing, technical charting is to be observed, because it describes market reactions.
I am looking forward to see what is the upper boundary for coffee price under current circumstances.
Also we may get a hint on reality of the invisible stock, because with this price there is enormous incentive to throw it on the market, IMO.
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