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Re: Global Coffee Balance Sheet Scenarios
I agree...at least in the USA. Europe is the biggest coffee consumer in aggregate and data is more opaque there. But USDA in their update last month just increased demand substantially over the last 3 years which supports the thesis that demand has been fine. What's unknowable but what USDA has asserted is that the 21/22 crop year will see global demand completely stall. This I do not agree with. I think it's a conversation that we'll need to have in the coming months price and data dependent but I don't see that happening at 190 today. But as you saw before this frost event, coffee has had a strong macro component and the delta variant has been perceived as negative for demand of pretty much everything. See crude oil and cocoa prices.