Unfortunately, this is one period where the lagging effect of the COT report comes in to play. The market began to take off Tuesday, the cut off for the COT reporting period. Since them we have seen a market range of 40 cents, with additional price gains of over 22 cents (on a closing basis). I will be very curious to see what the upcoming COT report will show, though of course by then we will be focused and digesting the performance of next five days.
From a technical point of view, that performance and candle formation from Friday is in fact not bullish. However, things get tricky because of the impending weather threat. While in the medium to long term I am quite bullish, I think the short term will be very volatile, and honestly, hard to determine. Unfortunately we can not separate out the differing layers of the market. My guess is the weather threat dominates and carries prices. If the threat dissipates, volatility certainly will not. Overall, I still favor buying dips and see this market well beyond $2, particularly as we head into fall.
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