(Bloomberg) - Brazil's 2022-23 Arabica coffee crop could fall to 42.7 million to 44.8 million bags, with a potential production of 51.5 million bags due to severe weather, including frost and drought, said the Marex in a report seen by Bloomberg.
Report only considers affected area, which will have little or no production in the 2022-23 cycle
Does not include "slightly" frost-burned crops that can recover well, but "with reduced production potential"
In southern Minas Gerais, the region's main producer, the crop could fall to 14.4-15.7 million, compared to the previous estimate of 20 million, according to a July 29 report.
For the Cerrado, it can drop from 6.5m to 4.2-4.9m; São Paulo may drop to 5.9-6m from 6.5m Paraná production could drop to 653.5k-679.9k from the previous estimate of 1 million "Although frost and its damage are a primary concern, all areas observed evidence that continued dry weather is causing additional stress to trees during the dormancy period"
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