The Brazilian arabica crop in 2020 was excellent, due to the fact that the rainfall in 2019 was exceptional, very abundant and on time. However, there are large deviations, with a strong decrease in rainfall from March to November 2020 and from March to today, August 9, 2021. It is necessary and needs to rain very well, a lot, in September, and the rains need to continue. If the rains and weather of 2020 repeat themselves from September on, it will be a catastrophe; the 2022 harvest will be much smaller and insufficient to meet world demand.
Some experts are already saying that the potential Arabica coffee production for 2022 has already decreased from 48 million bags to 36 million bags.
This decrease of 12 million is the sum of the drought of 2020 and 2021, and the cold and frosts of 2021. The vegetative growth for the 2022 production was very shortened with less internodes, the internodes are shorter, leaving no space for many fruits to grow and develop.
Nothing else can go wrong, the rains in September cannot be late and few, if they increase the potential losses for the 2022 season there will be no coffee stocks for everyone.
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