I have used an analogy of the force or influence of the Milankovitch Cycle to that of man made climate changes. I think of the Milankovitch cycle effects as one old mule slowly pulling a plow through a huge field and the man made climate changes as a state of the art, huge tractor pulling a plow about twenty times larger through the field at about 30 miles per hour. Yes, both influences are real but they are not mutually exclusive. If interested I can recommend many books that deal with the science of the change (as opposed to the politics which I do not care about). I have been studying any and all scientific information that I can find that directly pertains to climate change and agriculture. This includes, of course, changes in the availability of water. In this regard I believe the science of climate change is a huge, huge factor in any attempt at future commodity price predictions. I also, like Tango, do not care to delve into a heated discussion on the subject of politics or climate change. I simply want to point out that it may the greatest factor in the yields of all crops, worldwide, for many decades to come.
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