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Re: Brazil sugar
Posted by Rich
on August 11, 2021, 12:27 pm, in reply to "Brazil sugar
I believe the same fundamentals (climate change) that are influencing the price of coffee are also influencing orange juice and sugar. Yesterday's sugar move had me dancing + shouting "Yahoo". I believe one difference between coffee and sugar is that, unlike coffee, the carryover or existing stocks of sugar, from last year, are not large at all. In fact, if the information I've read is accurate, the last year's total new supply was less than total demand, so there was a slight deficit. I have been recently attempting to educate myself on the subject of sugar beets since so much sugar is derived from them. It appears that much of the sugar beet regions of Canada and the USA are also the same areas that have been in drought. Russia, France, and Turkey also grow sugar beets. I plan on remaining on the long side of coffee but fear a really big move will have to wait until existing stocks are drawn down. With sugar, existing stocks have already been drawn down so any damage to sugarcane or sugar beets ought to be reflected in higher prices sooner than in coffee. Orange juice also bears watching. Does my reasoning sound valid? Any information or leads to information on any of these markets is always welcome.