By Marvin G. Perez
(Bloomberg) --
Production may range between 13m-13.5m bags versus 13.9m in 2020 after too much rain and cloudy days caused by La Nina weather pattern hindered yields, says Roberto Velez, CEO of the nation’s main grower group Fedecafe.
Exports may end down also for the year at 12.5m bags versus 12.8m last year
Besides lower production, exports were hampered by road and port blockades earlier this season, plus lack of container and vessel space, he says by phone from Bogota
Even if higher prices incentivize farm investments, prospects for 2022 are unclear due to unfavorable conditions
More of the same La Nina-related weather is expected with a forecast for a return of the phenomenon by October, Velez says
The weather for next year has been terrible for the crop collected in the first half, Velez said, declining to give a projection
The world’s second-largest arabica producer has capacity to produce a maximum of 14m-14.5 bags a year, he says
NOTE: In July, output fell 8% y/y; total annual production has been hard to estimate because of road disruptions in May-June
Arabica futures surged 52% in the past year in New York; a bag weighs 60 kg or 132 lbs
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