Brazil Coffee May Take 3 Years to Come Back From Frost ‘Horror’

By Marvin G. Perez

(Bloomberg) --

Freezing weather in July compounded blow from droughts, and in some cases small producers lost 100% of their crops, says Anike Ejlers Wolthers, founder of Red Container Coffee, a broker based in Santos, Brazil’s biggest port.

Unless small growers get more help, including from government, many will probably switch to annual crops such as soybeans, rather than waiting three years to get a new coffee crop going
Recent frost, now considered worst since a devastating one in 1975, left “horror show” on the ground, dehydrating trees and burning foliage, she says during event hosted by Specialty Coffee Association
Yields will probably suffer for three seasons
Impossible to know now how deep freeze hurt plants, and how much was lost for 2022-23 harvest; some big farms lost as much as 20%
There’s concern 2021 output, est. ~56m bags, may be even lower; bag weighs 60 kgs
Rains forecast next week, totaling ~20mm, won’t revert dry soil conditions for severe stressed areas in South Minas Gerais, Mogiana and Cerrado
Need at least 30mm “daily for many consecutive days” to improve
Adverse weather impact compounded “perfect storm” affecting market, adding to elevated freight costs, shipping delays
It’s not only difficult to get containers and vessel space, but also departure bookings because of local port restrictions against “dangerous” Covid-affected places
“Everyone is suffering” from higher costs, delays and frost impact; this will eventually reach the consumers through higher prices