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Re: Where is the coffee deficit?
That's last year's surplus and most estimates were in the 6-8 mm bag surplus range 6 months ago. We're trading some combination of 21/22 and 22/23. Volcafe was just out saying a 12 mm bag deficit for 21/22. Were only 2+ months into this deficit and to what extent it occurs will be up for debate for a year or more just as ico adjusted 20/21 this month. But brazilian exports in the next 3-4 months and inventories on a lag will go a long ways to shaping market expectations of a 6-8mm bag surplus or 12-15. Aka a wide range of possible outcomes and we haven't even begun to talk about the frost and droughts impact on next year. Regarding price, first its at 190 so its come a long way. I personally think it has more work to do to the upside but its reticence is due to the fact that brazil has always managed to find a few extra million bags in the last 10 years, the fact that the brl and other currencies remains weak, and on the macro side the increase in delta variant cases has dampened big money flows/optimism, alongside a host of other factors. Price had its initial shock response and now it's about reconciling how data comes in.