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BLUE LINE = BRLUSD
The market made several attempts to penetrate the 200.00 level but the only accomplishment was to attract sellers. The only positive day of the four day week was the last day. But for the week, prices were down 2.05c in an 8.60c range. Robusta however was up $76 as 7 new managed money funds joined the bull side. The changes in the COT report are small as as result of two way action in prices but there are some additional highlights.
In KC, Index funds sold some longs either as delta or as outright. In RC, the spread position of Large Traders is unusually high as shown in the supplemental report. This could represent the market makersí short position in CSOs. The opposite side is likely commercials whose spread position is not shown in the COT reports. The XF closed at a premium of $12 on Friday but the FH has become the lead spread. It closed at $51. Apparently the Viet Nam lockdown has created a squeeze in RC. According to Nikkei Asia, the government is contemplating extending the lockdown beyond the September 15th deadline. Of course, lockdowns are not solutions. Viet Nam remains low of the vaccinated countries:
Input by someone more familiar with RC would be helpful. KC spreads are steady but only because of forward outright selling, likely origin.
The COT combined with market behavior is on the bearish side. Rallies have become opportunities to sell as commercials and longs remain prepared to sell strength. Of course, we can flourish by going long as well. Itís just riskier based on the current market.
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