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My scenarios and expectations to Brazilian Arabicas to 2022/23
Posted by Marco Antonio Jacob
on September 15, 2021, 12:04 am
Sometime in late September or early October the rains should return, but losses have already occurred due to: 1) the rains in 2020 only returned at the end of November, reducing the vegetative growth of the branches, with fewer internodes, thus the smaller area of plants to flower and fruit. 2) In the year 2021, since March the rains diminished, bringing high hydric deficit in the soil, this lack of water interferes in all the metabolism of the plant, causing death of radicels, and defoliation by lack of refrigeration and dryness of the leaves. 3) The frosts and intense cold that there is no need to comment. I know it is too early to talk about scenarios and expectations, but even without the mentioned droughts and frosts, if the climate had been friendly to the coffee trees, there would be no repetition of the 2020 harvest, because that production was a gift from God. Therefore, a logical reasoning for the 2022 harvest would be 1) initial potential of 47.00 million 2) loss of 8 million due to drought 3) loss of 4 million due to frost. Potential today of 35 million bags for the 2022 harvest, provided that the climate is excellent from now on, with abundant and continuous rainfall.
- My scenarios and expectations to Brazilian Arabicas to 2022/23 - Marco Antonio Jacob September 15, 2021, 12:04 am
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