Plethora of different charts below. Including Ethiopia/Uganda. Relative to USDA projections, Ethiopia is underperforming by 1.1MM bags annualized (arabica), Uganda overperforming by 500k annualized (robusta). Central American in aggregate overperforming by 400k annualized, and Peru underpeforming by 1MM annualized. This is for the 20/21 year still which USDA counts as October 1st - Sep 30th each year. I'm not counting Vietnam which has had all the shipping problems and exports would suggest a massive 6MM bag shortfall. Obviously they historically hold stocks, so I think it irresponsible to look at them. Net of everything, we're underperforming by 1MM plus ex Vietnam and ex Brazil, but not by a statistically significant margin.
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