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GCA Stock Change vs Global Surplus/Deficit
Posted by Q
on September 16, 2021, 8:49 am
Scatter plot below. Using USDA's balance sheet. Given what we know today, we would have expected a 250k bag build in North American inventories...instead we saw a 600k bag draw. Given the historic relationship, we should expect a 500k bag draw YoY over the next year with a 10 MM bag global deficit. Only time will tell, but it's a very messy fit.