« Rain start soon » : agreed.
« Bigger than expected yield » : talking about a crop that has not even really had a flowering yet? Still have wait until July 22 to talk about possible yields..
« ICE people smelled new coffee on the way
They need to empty space for next crop »: it is not ICE people who decide if coffee gets out of the certified stocks, but trade houses (and roasters who buy these coffees). And there is plenty of room for more coffee by the way… For now differentials (expensive) and rising freight rates means it is very unlikely to see new certs soon (take a look are robusta certified stocks).
« My opinion is 55 million bags » : based on?