The information is from Canal Rural.
Global coffee production in crop year 2020/2021 (October-September) totaled 169.644 million bags of 60 kg, up 0.4% compared to 2019/2020 (168.980 million bags), according to the International Organization of the Café (ICO) on Thursday (7), in its monthly market monitoring report, maintaining the September estimate.
The world production of Arabica coffee reached 99.280 million bags in 2020/2021 (+2.3%). On the other hand, the canephore (robust) crop dropped 2.1%, totaling 70.365 million bags.
The global consumption of coffee in 2020/2021, according to the ICO, reached 167.258 million bags, with an annual increase of 1.9% (164.135 million bags in 2019/2020). In September, the estimate for global demand for coffee in 2020/2021 was 167.011 million bags.
As a result, the global coffee market had a surplus between supply and demand in the order of 2.386 million bags in 2020/2021, after a surplus of 4.846 million bags observed in 2019/2020. In September, the ICO was pointing to a surplus of 2.633 million bags.
According to the ICO, harvesting for crop year 2020/2021 has been completed in all producing countries and the market should focus on production from crop year 2021/2022 and also 2022/2023.
Uncertainty created by weather-related supply shocks and possible disruptions in trade flows from tighter pandemic-related measures has become a serious threat to the regularity of green coffee supplies. In addition, the increase in production costs, including fertilizers and labor costs, should capture a good part of the gain obtained with the recent rally and slow down investments in cultural treatments.
On the other hand, with the prospect of an ease in mobility restrictions and the subsequent prospects of economic recovery, world coffee consumption should continue to grow. In the last ten years, the average increase in world consumption was 1.9% per year. “It is hoped that the inelasticity of world consumption will tighten the supply-demand relationship and increase the possibility of continuing current trends in higher coffee prices”, stressed the ICO.
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