BLUE LINE = BRLUSD
For the first report in a while, the market was mostly one way and so changes in the COT are straight forward. Prices came very close to the previous highs of July as funds, mostly algos, bought while the large trader sector waited ready to shed some longs. Commercials sold mostly as hedges against options, probably. There seemed to be origin selling as the Real continued to deteriorate. There was one day where buying took place out to ‘23 which could very well have been the consumer sector but this activity was short-lived. The market had trouble penetrating 215.00 and backed off from this level.
The days after the report showed weakness as funds obviously reversed and stops were touched off. The market closed with 200.00 on the radar screen. We will see if it finds the support it needs to declare this area a solid base or not. Yes, rain has been plentiful in the coffee regions but what is the damage as a result of the’20 and the’21 droughts as well as the result of the ‘21 frosts. We anxiously await for the release production estimates.
Spreads were unchanged in ZH. HK was slightly steady and the remaining spreads were fairly strong. UZ traded at a premium momentarily and the ‘24 spreads remain at a premium. RC spreads were soft but it is still a premium market as shipping issues remain.
I am away for the weekend and do not have access to my COT template.
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