Importing country stocks are ~25mln bags, or ~25% of annual imports. The last time that importing countries had to draw down on 1/2 of their stocks (1994+) the market rallied above ~$5.00 in today's dollars in order to ration demand.
Of course the differences between now and then are:
1) There were ~30mln bags sitting in Brazil in 1994 available to be released into the market at high prices. Today there are just ~15mln.
2) Aggregate global demand is ~50% higher today than in 1994.
The market may do what it will - selloffs of course can happen. But this market is set to be tighter than it has been in many, many years. The risk that commercial entities need to scramble for physical coffee at some point over the next 18 months are very high. This situation of extremely tight supply - especially for two crop cycles in a row - is very rare.
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