Re: Monthly Warehouse Stocks Report
My rule is that warehouse stocks changes are significant only when associated with global stocks. The ‘14 market was an example of a market where prices were firm while stocks were being depleted. By October of that year we saw a great deal of selling by commercials taking advantage of the elevated prices in futures and the very low Real. As it turned out the stocks on hand were around 20m bags and so the warehouse stocks were not a good guide for market direction. This year I feel that we don’t have enough information. We don’t have revised production estimates for ‘21’22 and estimates for ‘22’23. Nor do we know what the carryover stocks are.
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