Below the exports of October, the issuance of certificates was 3,135,320 bags, we must wait until the 10th of November approximately to know how much was actually exported through the BLs.
Remembering that last October exports were 4,504,059 bags. Then we will have a decrease of 1.4 million bags approximately.
Exports are still strong due to contracts executed last year that bought future purchases that have now been delivered between July and October.
I believe that during the 2021 season, which ends in June 2022, Brazil will have months to export less than 2 million bags.
My forecast for Brazilian exports in the 2021 season, July to June, will be 28 to 30 million bags, well below the 45 million bags of the 2020 season.
The question is, who will replace these 17 to 15 million bags that Brazil will not export?
I only see one possibility, the use of stocks in importing countries.
This comment of mine is open for debate, please speak up.
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