11/04/2021 - 19:43 (Brasilia)
Coffee beans
But they would be far from the volume harvested in the last year of high, in the 2020/21 harvest (Image: Pixabay/HaiBaron)
The next coffee crop in Brazil (2022/23) could reach 62 million bags of 60 kg, pointed out Itaú BBA in a base scenario considered by analysts at the institution, who noted difficulties in making projections after a long drought and frost.
In a more optimistic scenario, the harvest in the largest global producer and exporter would total 64 million bags, while in the most pessimistic, 60 million bags.
These volumes projected for 2022/23, a period of high productivity in the biannual Arabica cycle, would still surpass those of the 2021/22 season, of 56 million bags, according to figures cited by the institution.
But they would be far from the volume harvested in the last year of high, in the 2020/21 harvest.
"We believe that a loss of between 8 and 12 million bags of Arabica coffee is reasonable at this time due to drought and frost, when compared to the 2020/21 production, the last year of high harvest, that is, between 15% and 24% below of that year”, he said.
According to Itaú BBA, this would mean production between 38 million and 42 million bags of arabica.
Added to the conilon coffee crop that may evolve 5% again, similar to this year's growth, according to the bank, Brazil would have the potential to produce a total of between 60 million and 64 million bags of coffee in 2022/23.
Also according to the report, there would be an export potential of 37 million to 41 million bags of coffee between July 2022 and June 2023, "the availability of exports may be a little lower if domestic consumption grows a little, something uncertain in due to the impact of the increase in prices to the final consumer and the scenario of a probable recession in the Brazilian economy in 2022”.
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