2021-11-05 16:47:09.207 GMT
By Marvin G. Perez
(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s 2022-23 coffee crop will probably
rebound after favorable rains brought relief from drought,
according to Ecom Trading, one of the world’s biggest traders of
“We are very optimistic about the recovery,” said Jorge
Esteve, a vice president of Ecom’s Brazilian unit in Sao Paulo.
“Rains have been very good, above average since September.”
The wold’s biggest producer will collect the high-yielding
cycle of the arabica harvest next year. This year’s crop was
hurt by dry weather that reduced output to 54.7 million bags
from a record above 70 million bags in 2020-21. Brazil’s crop
year spans from July through the following June.
Bigger production could replenish depleted stockpiles and
clip the rally in prices. Arabica coffee futures surged 62% this
year in New York, with tighter supplies in South America
compounded by soaring freight costs and a shortage of
containers. That’s lifted the cost outlook for companies such
that use the beans such as Starbucks Corp. and Nestle SA.
Yields from farms south Minas Gerais and Alta Mogiana hit
hard by frosts in July will still be affected. Other places like
Zona da Mata or robusta-growing regions that experienced milder
weather should see better crops. Added plantings in places like
Bahia and Rondonia should bump robusta production, Esteve said.
Ecom’s projections tend to be higher than official
forecasts in Brazil and are typically more aligned with the U.S.
Department of Agriculture. Brazil consumes around 23.6 million
bags a year, with exports exceeding 30 million. A bag weighs 60
Like the rest of the world, the nation is dealing with
logistical snarls that have held back about 6 million bags from
export over the past few months, Esteve said. A trucker-driver
strike this week has delayed shipments to ports, he said.
*Brazil’s 2022-23 Coffee Crop Seen Rising Up to 66m Bags:*
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