In 2021, a low biennial year , Brazil should harvest 56 million bags, of which 36 million would be Arabica and 20 million Robusta, but had a drought from March to the end of November 2020, with record pruning , skeletonizing and recepas after the 2020 harvest, which was reflected in the coffee estate and reduced the Arabica production in 2021 to only 23/24 million bags, also the conilon crop gave a slight slip, so I consider the harvest in Brazil in 2021 of only 43/44 million coffee.
Thus, a difference of 26/27 million bags to the 70 million of the previous year, that is, the 2020 crop.
Now we have to analyze the 2022 harvest. The 2020 drought was so severe and prolonged until the end of November that it slowed the vegetative growth of pruned and unpruned trees.
So the potential for Arabica production in 2022 has already started much lower , in the year 2021 there was the strong and extreme drought already in March, and in July we had the frosts , the rains returned in October .
If Brazil harvests its 35 million bags of Arabica coffee in 2022, this is a good size, within my expectation.
So do not expect miracles of coffee production .
God is working hard to solve the Covid issue, don't get in his way.
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