(Bloomberg) -- The rebound of Brazil’s arabica coffee production will be limited by persistent effects from dryness in past years, recent frosts, plus fungal disease that’s spreading with the current moisture, according to veteran market analysts Judy Ganes and Shawn Hackett.
• The analysts, who have followed coffee for decades, have just returned from touring main Brazilian growing regions including the states of Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo, driving over 1,300 km
o Arabica production in 2022-23 season will probably range between 33.7m bags 38.7m bags, they said
• That compares with 30.7m bags est. for this year’s by Brazilian government, and 48.8m bags two years ago; bag weighs 60 kgs
• NOTE: Brazil arabica producers typically collect one-big crop followed by smaller one, and next year is a high-yielding season; arabica prices surged 60% this year in New York
• Many trees don’t show rate of recovery that farmers had expected, and aside from drought, widespread infestations such as Bicho Mineiro worsened defoliation
• Farmers had to drastically prune trees, cutting branches and tree tops, and some trees were cut all the way down to stumps
• That will delay tree recovery for another year or two
• While recent rain is helping restore soil moisture, and flowering was prolific, too much moisture has also triggered a fungal disease called Phoma
• The unparalleled climatic episodes of the past year will “maximize a multi-year crop shortfall without sufficient above-ground stocks to buffer” it, Hackett said.