By Tatiana Freitas
(Bloomberg) --
Production seen rising from 56.7m bags in 2021-22 as Brazil will be in the higher yielding part of a biennial cycle next season, but output will be “frustrating” comparing with the record 2020-21 crop, Rabobank analyst Guilherme Morya says in a webinar.
Losses due to July frosts seen at 4m bags in 2022-23, according to a preliminary analysis
There are still a lot of uncertainties around the frost impacts, including effects of recent showers and farmers’ decisions after losses
Next year’s harvest depends on rains in the coming months; recent precipitation has favored coffee flowering
Arabica-coffee prices seen $1.6c-2.1c/lb in 2022
Rising production costs, remaining logistics bottlenecks and Brazil’s currency devaluation should keep coffee prices high
Rabobank sees exchange rate at 5.61 BRL/USD at end of 2022
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