SAO PAULO, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The Brazilian Arabica coffee crop next year is expected to drop around 20% compared to 2020, the last year of high production in the biennial Arabica cycle, to 40 million bags after a year of droughts and frosts, said consultancy Safras & Mercado on Wednesday.

According to Safras, Brazil produced around 70 million 60 kg bags of coffee in 2020, a record. Of this total, 50 million bags were of the lighter Arabica variety, with a robusta production of around 20 million bags.

The consultancy projects that production in 2021, one year outside the Arabica cycle, will be 56.5 million bags. (Full story)

Safras coffee analyst Gil Barabach said during the presentation that this is a preliminary estimate, as there is still a long way to go before the harvest starts in May or June of next year.

He said that there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the new Brazilian crop, but that the latest rains have improved production prospects.

Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture said that around 20% of Arabica coffee fields were hit by frosts in July, which led some analysts to expect a large loss of production.



(Reporting by Roberto Samora, Written by Marcelo Teixeira, Editing by Louise Heavens)