I believe that market players work with disparate information .
For example, it is notorious that the media, the big players, and others have announced a Brazilian Arabica harvest for the 2021 season close to 32/34 million bags.
However, I and my friends who study the Brazilian coffee culture have the opinion and conviction that the harvest was only 23/24 million bags.
Of course we are ridiculed daily, but supposing that we are right, and soon Brazilian exports are reduced to ridiculous numbers, the market will be the same as today ?
This past week two major companies released excellent forecasts for Brazil's 2022 crop, and yesterday Judy Ganes and Shawn Hackett released worrying and alarming numbers for the same 2022 crop in an interview for Bloomberg.
So there is no perfect market and there is no pre-setting of prices by the news.
I am of the opinion that the hedge funds are holding the market at these levels to add longs to their positions, but one day they will hit the PUMP button.
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