The COT report shows fund selling in a mostly weak market. It also shows swap dealer buying which could well be the consumer end, but we don’t know for sure.

Today, the market firmed early and proceeded to the general area of Nagual’s resistance and pulled back but with good support that prevented further losses. The buyers were likely mostly funds and other specs, possibly delta shorts and possibly the consumer end. The sellers were longs and commercials, both delta longs and origin in the forwards, imo.

The ZH and ZK were firm and eased by the end of day. HK was steady early but came under pressure to close unchanged. The remaining spreads were mostly firm with Z4H4 trading at 1.10 c premium. There has been a seller in Z2Z3 for several weeks, preventing further rises in all spreads.