In my opinion, the majority of shorts held by commercials are either bona fide hedges against physicals/actuals or against options. Variation margin on delta hedges is not an issue since price appreciation on options offset the variation. Hedges by producers may be an issue for some especially those that sold forwards against anticipated production. I think that the real shorts may be the consumer sector, merchants, processors and distributors. I’m sure that there are a few commercials that punt but I don’t think that they are as widespread as many people perceive. GT