Well overall I'd say consensus is 5-6 MM bags lost from frost plus drought, and going from 20 to 22, you have an in built increase of 2.5 MM bags due to trend/productivity gains, so this number is not far from consensus from a YoY delta perspective. Overall their numbers are and have been a joke with a bearish lean. I wouldnt seriously consider anyone with only a 5 MM bag deficit this year. I think 8-13 as a range is fair. I'm saying that as someone who is no longer bullish either (more like neutral, looking for a place to be bearish).