Calypso: Thanks for the thoughts and the numbers. As for a price target....my opinion is up, substantially up. As for when, sometime within the next year. I'm not trying to be funny. I learned long ago that trying to time any commodity market is damn near impossible. So, I'll suggest positioning on the long side and waiting. I do so with call option spreads as outright contracts are much too risky for my budget. I always own more calls than I sell and the long calls are always near the actual coffee price while the shorts are 20-50 cents higher. When coffee tanks as it did last Friday, I buy back a short. When coffee rallies bigtime, I sell a call in the closest month and while trying to buy one with more time. It's one strategy and has worked well so far. I believe actually timing any market is well beyond my ability. And even if I did exactly time one it would probably be as much by luck as skill. And the danger there is that I might be foolish enough to believe it was skill..! I hope the source of your numbers is accurate.