(Bloomberg) -- World production may slide in 2021-22 to 158.8m bags with consumption at 171.4m bags, estimates Ecom Trading, one of the world’s biggest traders of the commodity, according to people familiar with the recently revised figures.
• The deficit will be mainly of arabicas after a plunge in Brazilian output, but robusta supply was also affected, said the sources
• That compares with a surplus of about 5m bags previously seen for 2020-21, when production reached 175.3m bags, the people said
• NOTE: Brazil’s arabica output plunged by a third this year after severe drought exacerbated an expected annual cyclical decline
o The worst frosts and freeze in decades also curbed yields for at least one more season
• NOTE: Ecom projection for 2021-22 compares with USDA est. for a surplus of 2.6m bags, and a deficit of 11.6m bags made earlier this year by trader Volcafe, the Swiss coffee unit of ED&F Man Holdings Ltd
• Ecom’s main office in Switzerland didn’t immediately respond to email seeking comment, and phone calls went answered after normal business hours
• Arabica coffee futures surged 79% this year in New York with Colombia’s production drop adding to supply woes; global shipping headwinds and elevated freight rates also pushed costs higher
• NOTE: Bag weighs 60 kg, 0r 132 lbs; A Year of Harsh Weather Pushes Coffee to Record Gain: Chart